Prediction of Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira vs Joaquin Guilleme at M15 Lima 10 Dec 2025

• Second serve effectiveness in recent matches shows Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira winning 39.53% of points compared to Joaquin Guilleme's 44.35%. Could this provide Guilleme an advantage?
• Looking at return game stats: Nogueira captured 46.27% of second serve points from opponents, while Guilleme is slightly ahead with 49.32%.
• First serve return points have Nogueira at 32.83% and Guilleme at 33.66%, suggesting Guilleme may have a minor edge.
• Under pressure, Nogueira saved 60.71% of breakpoints compared to Guilleme’s 54.88%. Does this imply resilience for Nogueira?
• Over the past year, Nogueira has a match win rate of 56.00%, whereas Guilleme boasts a higher rate at 73.91%.
• Surface preference might play a role: Nogueira excels on clay with a 56% win rate, while Guilleme performs best on hard courts at 56%.
• Nogueira tends to play in lower-level tournaments ($10K Futures/Satellites/ITF), winning 56.00%, while Guilleme has a superior win percentage of 73.91% at the same level.
• Analyzing opponent quality, Nogueira typically faces higher-ranked competitors (average rank of 34.4) compared to Guilleme’s opponents (average rank of 200.39).
• In deciding set scenarios, Nogueira wins 50% of the time, whereas Guilleme wins more frequently at 75%, a potential predictor of match outcome if it goes the distance.

Editorial Prediction (December 10, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing recent performance, Joaquin Guilleme shows strong potential with superior stats in key areas compared to Henrique Ortenblad Nogueira.

Guilleme's edge in second serve points, return games, and overall match win percentage suggests he might handle match pressure more effectively.

Despite Nogueira's resilience in breakpoints and experience against tougher opponents, Guilleme's performance profile over the last year positions him as the likely favorite.

Considering the above factors, Joaquin Guilleme appears to be the likely winner for the upcoming match.